Why Smart Investors Are Buying Presale Condos at 15–25% Below Peak Right Now

If you spend any time on Reddit or reading local real estate news, you have probably seen the headlines: "Condos crashing in BC," "Presale sales down 50%," and "Developers turning to bulk sales." The sentiment is undeniably negative. But while retail buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to drop further, experienced investors are quietly moving in. They are looking at the data, analyzing the supply pipeline, and buying presale condos at **15% to 25% below peak market values.** Here is a breakdown of exactly what is happening in the BC presale market in 2026, why the math makes sense for investors right now, and how you can execute this strategy. ## The Current State of the Market Let's be direct: the Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley condo markets are currently in a buyer's market. Active condo listings are **37% above the 10-year average**, and the sales-to-active ratio is hovering around 14%. Q1 2026 saw only 124 presale units sold in all of BC, a staggering drop from the almost 6,000 units sold in Q1 2021. Developers are feeling the pressure. Projects that started construction years ago are now completing, and there are an estimated **7,000 unsold new condos sitting empty** across the region. To move this inventory, developers are offering massive incentives: rate buy-downs, decorating allowances, and significant price cuts. Some are even turning to bulk sales, selling multiple units to single buyers at 15% to 20% below current asking prices. ## The Supply Gap Thesis So, why buy now when prices are soft and rents are declining? The answer lies in the future supply pipeline. Because sales are so slow right now, developers are not launching new projects. In early 2026, presale launches in the Lower Mainland plunged to just 64 units—about 6% of a normal month. **If developers are not launching projects today, there will be no new buildings completing in 2028 or 2029.** As one commercial real estate expert noted, "If you're a betting man, there's going to be a lack of supply in two to three years." The real estate market is cyclical. When interest rates eventually stabilize and buyer confidence returns, that demand will hit a market with virtually no new supply. **This is the exact scenario that drives rapid price appreciation.** Smart investors are buying today's discounted inventory to ride the wave of tomorrow's supply shortage. ## The Investor Math: 2021 vs. 2026 Let us compare the math of buying a presale condo at the peak of the market in 2021 versus buying in today's environment. We will look at a typical 1-bedroom condo in Surrey near the upcoming SkyTrain extension. | Metric | Peak Market (2021) | Current Market (2026) | |---|---|---| | **Purchase Price** | $600,000 | $510,000 (15% discount) | | **Deposit Required (15%)** | $90,000 | $76,500 | | **Developer Incentives** | None | $10,000 Decorating Allowance | | **Market Competition** | Multiple Offers | Buyer dictates terms | | **Supply Outlook at Completion** | High Supply | Extreme Supply Shortage | In 2021, investors were paying premium prices, putting down larger deposits, and hoping the market would continue its historic run. Today, you can buy the exact same asset for $90,000 less, put down less cash upfront, and position yourself perfectly for the upcoming supply crunch. ## The Rental Income Holding Strategy Of course, if you are buying a completed or near-completed presale today, you have to carry the property until the market turns. Currently, the average rent for a 1-bedroom condo in Surrey is approximately **$1,750 per month**. While rents have softened recently due to new purpose-built rental completions and economic headwinds, they still provide a solid yield. Investors are running the numbers, factoring in the discounted purchase price, and achieving **cap rates around 4%** on brand-new product. The strategy is simple: buy at a steep discount, rent the unit out to cover the carrying costs, and wait for the 2028–2029 supply shortage to drive capital appreciation. ## How to Execute This Strategy If you want to capitalize on this buyer's market, here is the step-by-step execution plan: 1. **Focus on Transit-Oriented Hubs:** Look for projects near major infrastructure improvements. The Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension is currently 25% complete, with 30% of Surrey's section already built. Buying near future stations is the safest bet for long-term appreciation. 2. **Target Nearing-Completion Projects:** Look for buildings that are completing in the next 3 to 6 months. Developers are highly motivated to clear this inventory and will offer the steepest discounts. 3. **Negotiate the Deposit:** Developers need sales on the board. We are currently negotiating extended deposit structures or reduced total deposits (e.g., 10% instead of 20%) to keep more cash in your pocket. 4. **Factor in the Flipping Tax:** Be aware of the new BC Home Flipping Tax, which applies to properties and presale assignments sold within 730 days (two years) of purchase. This strategy requires a minimum two-to-three-year holding period. ## Frequently Asked Questions **Are presales riskier right now?** Yes, there is developer risk. If a developer goes bankrupt, your deposit is protected in trust, but you lose time. That is why we only recommend buying from established, well-capitalized developers with a proven track record. **What about appraisal gaps?** If you bought a presale in 2022 at peak prices, you might face an appraisal gap today (where the bank values the home lower than the purchase price). But if you are buying *today* at a 15% discount, you are buying at current market value, significantly reducing appraisal risk. **Should I buy resale instead?** For an end-user who needs a home immediately, resale is often the better play right now. But for an investor looking to leverage a smaller deposit and avoid immediate maintenance issues, heavily discounted presales offer superior upside potential. --- *Sources: Daily Hive, Vancouver Home Search, DoorInsight, City of Surrey, Province of British Columbia*