MLA Intel 2026: What the Presale Condo Market Means for Buyers & Investors in BC

The MLA Intel 2026 Report reveals one of the weakest years for presale activity in over a decade. But within the data, there are clear signals about where the market is headed—and where the opportunities lie.

## What Buyers & Investors Are Feeling Right Now The [presale condo market](/presale-projects) feels slow, confusing, and uncertain — and that's not just sentiment. According to MLA, 2025 was one of the weakest years for presale activity in over a decade. Total presale unit releases declined **64% year-over-year**, and project launches fell **49% compared to 2024**, placing activity well below the 10-year average. This is no longer a hype-driven market. It's a reset. --- ## First-Time Buyers: Why the Market Still Feels Unaffordable ### Presale vs Resale Pricing One of the biggest frustrations for first-time buyers is realizing that [presale condos](/vancouver-presale-condos) are still priced higher than [resale units](/properties). MLA reports: - Concrete presale pricing averaged **~21% higher** than comparable resale units - Wood-frame presales carried an average **~12% premium** While this gap narrowed compared to 2024 due to developer price adjustments and incentives, it remains a major consideration. **What this means for buyers:** Presales today are less about short-term appreciation and more about **locking in future housing with controlled deposit structures**. Use our [presale investment calculator](/calculator) to model your specific scenario. --- ### Incentives: Real Value vs Marketing Noise In 2025, incentives became more aggressive — but not always more effective. MLA observed that many incentives were designed to attract attention rather than materially improve affordability. Examples included: - Free vehicles - Large realtor bonuses - One-day discount events Some projects did offer real affordability-driven incentives such as GST credits, reduced deposits, or pricing adjustments — but buyers still need to evaluate the **true net cost**. **Buyer takeaway:** Focus on net pricing, deposit structure, and livability — not promotional headlines. Read our [presale buyer's guide](/presale-guide) for a complete checklist. --- ### Why First-Time Buyers Are a Smaller Group Today MLA's buyer profile data shows a clear shift in who is purchasing presales: - First-time buyers declined from **48% in 2024** to **26% in 2025** - Buyers aged **40 and older now represent 60%** of purchasers - **32% of buyers reported household incomes over $250,000** Presales are increasingly being absorbed by downsizers and higher-income households, not entry-level buyers. This shift is reshaping product design, pricing, and absorption timelines. Looking for affordable options? Explore [presale condos under $500K](/presale-condos-under-500k-vancouver) or consider emerging markets like [Surrey presales](/surrey-presale-condos) and [Langley presales](/langley-presale-condos). --- ## Investors: Why the Numbers Are Challenging Right Now ### Investor Participation Has Largely Stepped Back Investor demand for presales was largely absent in 2025, particularly for concrete high-rise projects. Contributing factors include: - Higher interest rates - Rent controls and policy risk - Elevated construction and financing costs - Slower population growth In the [Fraser Valley](/fraser-valley-presale-condos), **zero concrete presale projects launched in 2025**, reflecting how difficult these deals have become to justify. --- ### Rental Supply Has Surged — Rents Are Softening This is one of the most important trends investors need to understand. According to MLA: - Total rental supply delivered in 2025 was **97.6% above the 10-year average** - **33.9% of newly completed condos are now used as rentals** — an all-time high - Average rents declined approximately **10% from 2024 to 2025**, and **14% from 2023 to 2025** **Investor reality:** Cash-flow-positive presale investments are extremely rare in this cycle. Most viable deals require long-term holding strategies and strong balance sheets. Model your investment with our [ROI calculator](/calculator). --- ### Purpose-Built Rentals Are Outcompeting Small Investors Purpose-built rentals now represent roughly **40% of all apartment and condo starts**, well above historical norms. These buildings benefit from: - Professional leasing and management - Rent incentives such as free months - Financing structures that allow longer absorption periods This makes it increasingly difficult for individual condo investors to compete, especially on smaller unit types. --- ## Is This a Bad Time to Buy? According to MLA, this market rewards **realism, patience, and project-specific decision-making**, not speculation. Momentum is no longer market-wide. It is **project-by-project**, driven by: - Correct pricing - Livable floorplans - Location-specific demand - Strong developer balance sheets This is not a FOMO market. It's a diligence market. [Browse all presale projects](/presale-projects) to find opportunities that match your criteria. --- ## What Smart Buyers Are Doing Now **First-time buyers are:** - Focusing on livable wood-frame projects in [Burnaby](/burnaby-presale-condos), [Coquitlam](/coquitlam-presale-condos), and [Surrey](/surrey-presale-condos) - Using extended presale timelines to plan finances - Leveraging available GST relief where applicable **Investors are:** - Sitting out commodity presales - Monitoring distressed or recapitalized opportunities - Prioritizing long-term rental fundamentals The presale market isn't dead — it's recalibrating. --- ## Ready to Explore Your Options? Whether you're a first-time buyer or seasoned investor, understanding the data is the first step. Here's how we can help: - [View all presale projects](/presale-projects) across Metro Vancouver - [Calculate your investment returns](/calculator) with our ROI tool - [Book a consultation](/contact) with our presale specialists - [Use our mortgage calculator](/mortgage-calculator) to estimate payments --- ## Download the Full Report Want to dive deeper into the data? Download the complete MLA Intel 2026 Report: **[📥 Download MLA Intel 2026 Report (PDF)](/reports/MLA_IntelReport-2026-DIGITAL.pdf)** --- ## Data Source & Credit All statistics, market observations, and insights referenced in this article are sourced from: **MLA Canada – MLA Intel 2026 Report** © MLA Canada. Used with attribution for educational and market commentary purposes. [MLA Canada](https://mlacanada.com) is a leading real estate advisory firm specializing in presale marketing and market intelligence across British Columbia. --- *Have questions about specific presale projects? [Contact our team](/contact) for personalized guidance based on your timeline, budget, and investment goals.*